p–ISSN: 2723 - 6609 e-ISSN: 2745-5254

Vol. 5, No. 10, October 2024 http://jist.publikasiindonesia.id/

Indonesian Journal of Social Technology, Vol. 5, No. 10, October 2024 3817

The Impact of Inflation, Stocks, Sukuk, and Sharia Mutual

Funds on Economic Growth in 2017-2023

Achmad Wildan Zakariya

, Trischa Relanda Putra

Universitas Trunojoyo Madura, Indonesia

Email: [email protected]

, [email protected]

*Correspondence

ABSTRACT

Keywords: inflation;

sukuk; stocks; sharia

mutual funds.

This study aims to ascertain, at least in part: 1) The impact

of inflation on the development of the national economy 2)

The performance of sharia stocks and the expansion of the

national economy 3) The impact of sukuk on the

development of the national economy, as well as the impact

of sharia mutual funds on the same, which are the third and

fourth impacts 5) Correlation between the development of

the national economy in 2017-2023 through inflation, sharia

mutual funds, sukuk, and stocks. Bank Indonesia (BI), the

Financial Services Authority (OJK), the Central Statistics

Agency (BPS), and other reliable sources of information

provided the population used in the study. To sort the sample

based on criteria set as independent variables, the monthly

data source is used once a year. Data sources include time

series data published for 2017-2023, which is considered

secondary data. The analysis of the data is double linear, this

research strategy uses a quantitative-associative

methodology. It can be concluded that inflation has a

significant adverse impact on the development of the

national economy (sig. 0.0001 < 0.05), indicating that

increasing inflation causes economic decline, in line with

Simanungkalit's (2020) research. Sharia stocks and sukuk

show a positive and significant impact on the national

economy, with a value of sig. 0.0021 and 0.0019 (< 0.05),

respectively, which means that an increase in the instrument

will increase economic growth.

Introduction

A metric that can display an interval is economic growth, or whatever term is used

to describe it (Auliyatusaa’adah et al., 2021). Business activities that generate income for

a community within a predetermined period. A country views a period of economic

expansion as an opportunity for its people to create commodities and services. Economic

growth according to (Sukirno, 2011) can be used as a metric to show how to advance the

economic development of a country in a certain period. Economic development is a

problem that constantly occurs in the economy of a country, especially in Indonesia

Achmad Wildan Zakariya, Trischa Relanda Putra

Indonesian Journal of Social Technology, Vol. 5, No. 10, October 2024 3818

(Permadi et al., 2022). The disruption of Indonesia's economic development, including

inflation, is caused by various things. Indonesia's economy with a high unemployment

rate, high inflation rate, and increasing investor interest in the Islamic capital market

(Ardi, 2018).

Indonesia seeks to increase its economic growth in several ways. Stabilizing

domestic inflation and growing the capital market investment sector are two possible

strategies to achieve this. (Putri & Yudiantoro, 2023). The current capital market is

changing as an intermediary for investors in terms of capital supply and demand so that

the evolution of the capital market can be shown along with the increasing choice of

capital market instruments. (Safitriawati et al., 2021). However, this is different from the

inflation component itself; That is, from an economic point of view, inflation is a financial

event that usually results in financial instability and goes up, down, and up again. For

most countries, the main goal of macroeconomic policy is to maintain price stability. This

results in long-term economic expansion (Radjak & Kartika, 2019).

The increase in unemployment and poverty rates is also directly affected by rising

inflation. What's more, poverty is increasing. The high rate of poverty and unemployment

is detrimental and hurts the community and the government. It is impossible to maximize

the individual in society. (Salim et al., 2021). Maximizing welfare, deaths due to

unreasonable prices, and low costs of manufacturing products and services disrupt the

stability of people's basic needs. Unemployment hurts society and the economy by

reducing prosperity, creating socio-economic instability, and increasing poverty. This can

also complicate economic progress. (Kartika & Zamzami, 2022). The events of 1970,

when growth rates began to slow in countries through high inflation, particularly in Latin

America, reinforced the idea that inflation hurt economic growth, even though the impact

was good at the time. (Fasa, 2016). Nevertheless, in addition to the issue of inflation,

instrumental developments according to the information released, the market situation is

very favorable. Statistics of the Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Conventional mutual funds allow investors to buy and sell them whenever they

want, based on risk tolerance, timeframe, and financial goals. Investors can use the

services of brokers or brokers to buy or sell shares directly in the traditional capital

market. Therefore, speculators can manipulate prices, which means that stock rate

fluctuations are driven by market forces and not by the stock's innate score. (Wahyudi et

al., 2023). In addition to providing a forum for the public to invest by Islamic law, Sharia

mutual fund products stand out because they have a process of clearing money received

through zakat payments; They are not instruments that produce riba. If the instrument he

buys is in the form of shares, the company is a company that is not affiliated with goods

that are haram according to Islamic law, such as alcohol, cigarettes, gambling, and

pornography. (Lestari, 2015).

According to Harrod-Domar's theory, the main driver of economic growth is the

formation of capital or investment. Sharia bonds, stocks, and mutual funds are some of

the ways to boost investment. The findings of the study (Rinanda, 2018) ensure that there

is a good and significant correlation between economic development through the

The Impact of Inflation, Stocks, Sukuk, and Sharia Mutual Funds on Economic Growth in 2017-

2023

Indonesian Journal of Social Technology, Vol. 5, No. 10, October 2024 3819

distribution of sharia, sukuk, and sharia investment funds. And have a significant impact

on economic development (Simanungkalit, 2020). Based on theoretical research and the

findings of previous studies, it can be concluded that the Sharia capital market, which

includes sukuk, Sharia funds, and Sharia equity instruments, can significantly encourage

economic growth.

Method

The research uses the research design of associations and quantitative

methodologies. The OJK website, www.ojk.go.id, provides secondary data for this

research. Public data on the nation's economic growth is sourced from www.bi.go.id,

www.bps.go.id, and the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). On December 23, 2023,

monthly Indonesia (IDX) data collection was carried out. The researcher then used the

time series type to reprocess the data. Using E-Views, researchers investigated research

instruments in more detail.

The research population consists of various data sources sourced from the Central

Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), and the Financial Services Authority

(OJK). The www.ojk.go.id, www.bi.go.id, and www.bps.go.id websites are used in each

monthly registration period of 2017–2023. Sharia bonds and mutual funds are the data

sources that are activated for the purposive sampling sample of this study. Requirements

regarding the data sources are inflation, sukuk, Sharia stocks, and Sharia mutual funds

that will operate from 2017 to 2023.

The following is the similarity design to be estimated in the study:

Y = α + β

+ β

+ e.................................................(1)

Information:

Y = National Economic Growth

a = Constanta

= Regression coefficient of inflation development rate (percent)

= Regression coefficient of sharia stocks (millions of rupiah)

= Sukuk regression coefficient (thousands of rupiah)

= Regression coefficient of sharia mutual funds (thousands of rupiah)

= Inflation

= Sharia shares

= Sukuk (Sharia bonds)

= Sharia mutual funds

e = Exit the residue

Achmad Wildan Zakariya, Trischa Relanda Putra

Indonesian Journal of Social Technology, Vol. 5, No. 10, October 2024 3820

Figure 1

Conceptual Framework

Based on this information, it can be explained that there are free variables, namely

inflation, Sharia stocks, sukuk, and Sharia funds. Sharia as a bound variable is the

development of the country's economy. Based on the conceptual framework, his research

was to find out how these variables affected the country's economic development.

Although the hypotheses of the study include:

H1: It is believed that inflation has a negative and significant impact in terms of economic

development.

H2: Sharia stocks are suspected to have a good impact and are important for economic

development.

H3: It is suspected that sukuk has a good and significant impact in terms of economic

development.

H4: Sharia mutual funds (investments) are considered good and have a great influence

on economic development.

H5: Inflation, Sharia stocks, sukuk, and Sharia mutual funds are assumed to have an effect

on economic development at the same time. Sharia funds have a positive impact and are

important for economic growth.

Results and Discussion

Results of the Classic Assumption Test

The purpose of the test is to show the existence of several deviations from the

alleged regression design class. It is very important to consider classical conjectures in

regression models because if classical assumptions are not met, several variables used as

explanatory variables lose their effectiveness. If the classical conditions are met, then it

can be said that the model is good. (Meryati et al., 2020). The findings of the classic

assumption test are:

Multicollinearity Test

Table 1

Multicollinearity Test Results

Variable

Coefficient

Variance

Uncentered

VIF

Centered

VIF

22.74194

564.6106

The Impact of Inflation, Stocks, Sukuk, and Sharia Mutual Funds on Economic Growth in 2017-

2023

Indonesian Journal of Social Technology, Vol. 5, No. 10, October 2024 3821

Inflation

1095.861

27.46916

3.423188

Sharia

Stocks

0.000264

1259.551

18.23641

Bond

Sukuk

0.000416

220.1718

24.83758

Fund

0.000287

440.5266

17.73751

Table 1 shows that the VIF score on variable X1 is below 10.00 which shows that

it does not contain problems, but on variables X2, X3, and X4 it is above 10.00 which

shows that the regression design contains multicollinearity problems.

Uji Autokorelasi

Figure 2

DW Table Test Chart

The autocorrelation test through the results of the Durbin-Watson calculation, can

be described that the qualification is in the score k (4) on the independent variable and n

(72) on the total group of the total data of the panel through its significance of 5%, DL

(1.5029) > DW (0.2524). So it can be concluded that positive autocorrelation markers are

obtained.

Normality Test

Figure 3

Normality Test Results

Achmad Wildan Zakariya, Trischa Relanda Putra

Indonesian Journal of Social Technology, Vol. 5, No. 10, October 2024 3822

Based on Figure 3, it can be seen that the magnitude of Jarque-Bera is 3.023108

through the probability value of 0.220567 which is> 0.05 which means that the data in

his research is rotated normally or normally.

Multiple Linear Regression Estimation Results

Using the help of the Eviews 12 application, it can be found that the findings of the

t and f tests that it shows are:

Table 2

Multiple Linear Estimation Results

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

T-Statistic

Prob.

18.41650

4.768851

3.861832

0.0003

Inflation

134.4512

33.10379

4.061504

0.0001

Sharia Stocks

-0.052029

0.016240

-3.203819

0.0021

Bond Sukuk

0.065908

0.020389

3.232430

0.0019

Fund

-0.021031

0.016937

-1.241733

0.2187

Based on the findings of the double linear regression analysis, in the similarity

design, several independent variables (X) over dependent variables (Y) are found,

namely:

Y = 18.41650 + 134.4512*X1 - 0.052029*X2 + 0.065908*X3 - 0.021031*X4

The interpretation of the findings of the double regression analysis is:

1. The constant has a positive score of 18.41650 in terms of whether the independent

variables of inflation, sukuk, Sharia mutual funds, and Sharia stocks have increased by

18.41650 percent.

2. Variable X1 is inflation with a regression coefficient of 134.4512, which means that

in every increase in one share, the variable inflation in the development of the national

economy has met an increase of 134.4512 percent.

3. Variable X2 is a sharia stock with a basic regression coefficient of -0.052029, which

means that in each increase in one stock, the stock variable in the development of the

national economy has met a large decline of 0.052029 percent.

4. Variable X3 is sukuk with a regression coefficient of 0.065908, which means that in

every increase in one share, the variable of sharia stocks that in the development of the

national economy has met a large development of 0.065908 percent.

5. Variable X4 is a Sharia mutual fund with a large regression coefficient of -0.021031,

which means that for every increase in one share, the variable of Sharia mutual funds

that in the development of the national economy has experienced a decrease of

0.021031 percent.

Coefficient of Determination

Table 3

Coefficient of Determination Test

R-squared

0.807455

Adjusted R-

squared

0.782610

The Impact of Inflation, Stocks, Sukuk, and Sharia Mutual Funds on Economic Growth in 2017-

2023

Indonesian Journal of Social Technology, Vol. 5, No. 10, October 2024 3823

Based on Table 3, it is shown that the Adjusted R-squared score is 0.782610. This

means that the variables of economic development can be explained by the variables of

Inflation, Sharia Stocks, Sukuk, and Sharia Mutual Funds amounting to 78.26% and the

remaining 21.74% are described as other variables outside of the variables used.

Test t

Based on Table 2, the findings of the t-test can be seen among them.

1) Inflation (X1)

Based on the test findings, a t-estimated score of 4.061504 > 1,668 t-tables was

achieved. His application was rejected by Ho. The matter concludes that variable inflation

has a negative and significant impact on economic growth.

2) Sharia Stocks (X2)

Based on the test findings, a t-estimated score of -3.203819 < 1,668 t-tables was

achieved. That his submission was allegedly achieved, namely that Ho was accepted. The

matter concludes that the Sharia Stock variable has a good and significant impact on

Economic Growth.

3) Sukuk (X3)

Based on the test findings, a t-estimated score of 3.232430 > 1.668 t-tables was

achieved. His submission alleges that H0 was rejected. The matter concludes that the

Sukuk variable ensures a negative and significant impact on Economic Growth.

Sharia Mutual Funds (X4)

Based on the test findings, a t-estimated score of -1.241733 < 1,668 t-tables was

achieved. That his submission was allegedly achieved, namely that Ho was accepted. The

matter concludes that the Sharia Mutual Fund variable has a positive and significant

impact on Economic Growth.

Test F

Table 4

Test Result F

Statistic

Value

F-statistic

20.33995

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000

Based on Table 4, it is shown that the F-statistic score is excessive in F-table

(20.33995 > 2.51). Until H1 is accepted it can be quoted as concluding that inflation,

Sharia stocks, sukuk, and Sharia mutual funds simultaneously (simultaneously) have a

significant impact on the dependent variable (Y) on the development of the national

economy.

Conclusion

Based on the findings of the analysis in this study, it can be concluded that inflation

has a significant negative impact on the development of the national economy, with a

significance level of 0.0001 which is less than 0.05. This shows that the increase in

inflation has the potential to cause a decline in national economic development, in line

with the results of the Simanungkalit (2020) study which also found a similar impact with

a significance level of 0.039 < 0.05. In addition, Sharia stocks have a positive and

significant impact on the development of the national economy, with a significance level

of 0.0021 < 0.05, which indicates that an increase in Sharia stocks can contribute to

Achmad Wildan Zakariya, Trischa Relanda Putra

Indonesian Journal of Social Technology, Vol. 5, No. 10, October 2024 3824

national economic growth. Furthermore, sukuk also has a positive and significant impact

on the development of the national economy, with a significance level of 0.0019 < 0.05,

meaning that an increase in sukuk can encourage an increase in national economic

development. Which also found a significance level of 0.0025 < 0.05. However, Sharia

mutual funds showed a negative but not significant impact on the development of the

national economy, with a significance level of 0.2187 > 0.05. Although the results suggest

that the increase in Sharia mutual funds may be related to economic development, the

impact is not significant. Which found a significance level of 0.000 < 0.05. Overall, this

study provides an overview of the significant influence of inflation, sharia stocks, and

sukuk on the development of the national economy, as well as the importance of

considering policies related to these variables.

The Impact of Inflation, Stocks, Sukuk, and Sharia Mutual Funds on Economic Growth in 2017-

2023

Indonesian Journal of Social Technology, Vol. 5, No. 10, October 2024 3825

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